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** 	TITLE:		rp2016_polls		                                          ** 	
**	AUTHOR:	    Philippe Mongrain                                             **
**  DATE:	    October 2022 						                          **	
**  VERSION:	Stata 16					                                  **	
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* Version control

version 16.0

* Import data

import excel surveys, firstrow sheet(rp2016) clear
destring _all, replace

* Generate survey date

format %tdMon_DD,_CCYY polldate

* Generate election date

gen edate = 20160313

gen electiondate = date(string(edate,"%8.0f"),"YMD") 

format %tdMon_DD,_CCYY electiondate

* Time of survey

gen time = (electiondate - polldate) + 1

* Generate mean vote intention value by day

bysort time : egen spdvote = mean(spd)
bysort time : egen cduvote = mean(cdu)
bysort time : egen grunevote = mean(grune)
bysort time : egen fdpvote = mean(fdp)
bysort time : egen linkevote = mean(linke)
bysort time : egen piratenvote = mean(piraten)
bysort time : egen afdvote = mean(afd)
bysort time : egen othersvote = mean(others)

sort time

* Drop duplicates

duplicates tag polldate, gen(dup)
duplicates drop polldate, force
drop dup

* Reshape the dataset

rename spd v_spd
rename cdu v_cdu
rename grune v_grune
rename fdp v_fdp
rename linke v_linke
rename piraten v_piraten
rename afd v_afd
rename others v_others

reshape long v_, i(polldate) j(party) string

rename v_ vote

keep polldate electiondate party vote poll time

order poll polldate electiondate time party vote

* Generate rank of parties

gsort polldate -vote

bysort polldate : gen rank = _n

gen first = party if rank == 1
gen second = party if rank == 2
gen third = party if rank == 3

bysort polldate : gen winner = first[1]
bysort polldate : gen runnerup = second[2]
bysort polldate : gen thirdplace = third[3]

* Generate poll margin

bysort polldate : gen pollmar = vote[1] - vote[2]

* Drop duplicates

duplicates tag polldate, gen(dup)
duplicates drop polldate, force
drop dup

* Misleading poll

gen misleading = 0 if winner == "spd" & pollmar >= 1
replace misleading = 1 if misleading!=0

* Save

drop if time == 0 | time == .

keep polldate pollmar misleading time

save "rp2016_polls.dta", replace